Inductive reasoning

Inductive reasoning (as opposed to deductive reasoning or abductive reasoning) is a method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying some evidence for the truth of the conclusion; is a form of logical thinking that uses related observations to arrive at a general conclusion.

Induction can be strong or weak. If an inductive argument is strong, the truth of the premise would mean the conclusion is likely. If an inductive argument is weak, the logic connecting the premise and conclusion is incorrect. While the outcome of a deductive argument is satisfied, the truth of the end of an inductive argument may be probable, based upon the evidence given. There are several key types of inductive reasoning:

  • Generalized → Draws a conclusion from a generalization. For example, “All the swans I have seen are white; therefore, all swans are probably white.”
  • Statistical → Draws a conclusion based on statistics. For example, “95 percent of swans are white” (an arbitrary figure, of course); “therefore, a randomly selected swan will probably be white.”
  • Sample → Draws a conclusion about one group based on a different, sample group. For example, “There are ten swans in this pond and all are white; therefore, the swans in my neighbor’s pond are probably also white.”
  • Analogous → Draws a conclusion based on shared properties of two groups. For example, “All Aylesbury ducks are white. Swans are similar to Aylesbury ducks. Therefore, all swans are probably white.”
  • Predictive → Draws a conclusion based on a prediction made using a past sample. For example, “I visited this pond last year and all the swans were white. Therefore, when I visit again, all the swans will probably be white.”
  • Causal inference → Draws a conclusion based on a causal connection. For example, “All the swans in this pond are white. I just saw a white bird in the pond. The bird was probably a swan.”

A scientist makes observations and records them. These data can be qualitative or quantitative, and the raw data can be supplemented with drawings, pictures, photos, or videos. From many observations, the scientist can infer conclusions (inductions) based on evidence. Inductive reasoning involves formulating generalizations inferred from careful consideration and the analysis of a large amount of data.

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